The peak of the possible Omicron-led third wave in India could come in late January and early February, when the country’s daily caseload could reach four to eight lakh (7-day average), a new projection of the Sutra model has revealed. Bed demand could peak at around 1.5 lakh, but the wave seems manageable due to the low hospitalization rate, said Manindra Agrawal, professor at IIT Kanpur. “Of course things could change in the next few weeks. In addition, there may be a local lack of beds. Therefore, appropriate maintenance and planning is justified, ”tweeted Prof. Agrawal.
Experts who are part of the Sutra Consortium are Anurag Agrawal, IGIB, Manindra Agrawal, IIT Kanpur, Pramod Garg, THSTI, Madhuri Kanitkar, MUHS, M Vidyasagar, IIT Hyderabad.
The projections, taking into account the Omicron situation in India through Jan 6, said the loss of immunity is a major factor in the continued surge in cases. According to his estimate, 70 to 100% of people have lost immunity. The natural immunity is bypassed between 50 and 100%, it said.
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“At the moment it is more difficult to make predictions for India because the model has not yet been able to capture the current phase. Extrapolated from Mumbai, we estimate that the peak could come in late January / early February. Its value could be between 4. are -8 lakh cases per day (7-day average), “said Prof. Agrawal.
Mumbai at the peak of the Omicron surge could see 30,000 to 60,000 cases per day (7-day average), while Delhi’s daily infection at the peak could be anywhere between 35,000 and 70,000. The 15.-20. January will be the peak time for Delhi, Mumbai and India, the projection model says. The need for hospital beds in Delhi is estimated at 12,000 while in Mumbai it could be 10,000.
India reported 1,17,100 new coronavirus infections on Friday, the highest after 214 days as over a lakh cases were reported in June last year. Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain said Delhi will likely report 17,000 Covid cases on Friday, while Mumbai’s daily cases are expected to be around 21,000 on Friday, said Dr. Shashank Joshi, member of the Maharashtra Covid Task Force.
Projection by IISC-ISI experts
Another projection by scientists from IISC and ISI, last updated on January 2, 2022, will peak two weeks later. The model contains state-related predictions of the third wave. The study considered three likely aspects: 100% susceptible, 60% susceptible, and 30% susceptible.